U.S. Holiday Sales Projected to Surpass $1 Trillion for the First Time

U.S. Holiday Sales Projected to Surpass $1 Trillion for the First Time

U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to top $1 trillion for the first time this year, according to projections from the National Retail Federation (NRF). The trade group forecasts total spending between $1.01 trillion and $1.02 trillion for the 2025 holiday season.

The NRF anticipates overall holiday sales growth of up to 4.2% compared with last year’s 4.3% gain. The slightly slower pace comes amid signs of a cooling labor market and declining consumer confidence following several months of economic uncertainty.

“American consumers may be cautious in sentiment, yet remain fundamentally strong and continue to drive U.S. economic activity,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said in a statement Thursday.

Still, the group cautioned that the **federal government shutdown—the longest in U.S. history—**poses a “notable headwind” ahead of the critical November–December shopping period, with some federal employees missing paychecks.

The NRF’s holiday forecast excludes spending on vehicles, gasoline, and restaurants. It is based on recent trends in consumer income and spending. Chief Economist Mark Mathews said the outlook remains positive because the economy “has continued to show surprising resilience” despite concerns over trade tariffs and persistent inflation.

Mathews noted that retailers “have tried to hold the line” on prices despite trade policy uncertainty. The federation expects retailers to hire between 265,000 and 365,000 seasonal workers, reflecting a softer labor market and down from 442,000 seasonal hires in 2024.