Tax changes could spur industrial development; Senior housing deals rise; HR leaders expect less hiring

Federal tax changes in the recently passed “big beautiful bill” could further turbocharge what’s already a steady current of U.S. manufacturing plant developments as companies seek to minimize impacts of trade tariffs, according to a report from NAIOP.

Peter Kroner, director of U.S. industrial market intelligence at brokerage Avison Young, said new allowances for 100% “rapid depreciation” on equipment and production facilities could bring a surge of build-to-suit and speculative industrial projects. Urgency will come from requirements that projects must begin construction by January 2029 and be operational by January 2031 to qualify for such allowances, creating a two-year window for action.

“By broadening the scope of eligible assets, the legislation aims to catalyze domestic production, reshape supply chain dynamics, and significantly reduce effective corporate tax rates,” Kroner said in the report from the commercial real estate trade group. “As a result, it is expected to spark a wave of industrial development across the country.”

Kroner cited Avison Young research tracking more than $3.5 trillion in long-term U.S. manufacturing investments announced by more than 60 companies in multiple industries since January 2025. “This wave of capital is expected to accelerate groundbreakings, spike demand for building materials, and drive up land values in regions with access to strategic infrastructure and labor,” Kroner said.

Sales transactions for U.S. senior housing and related care facilities increased 70% from a year earlier in the first half, nearing $6 billion in volume, according to analysts at Partner Valuation Advisors. The real estate consulting firm said further deal growth is likely in the second half and beyond as investors and developers respond to improving finance conditions and rising demand from an aging population.

“Rent growth expectations remain strong, with most investors anticipating annual increases above 5%,” Partner Valuation Senior Managing Director Brian Chandler said in a new report. “Improving fundamentals are fueling investor optimism and drawing more capital into the sector.”

Among other factors, Chandler noted nationwide senior housing and care facility occupancy has increased for 16 straight quarters, topping 88% in the second quarter. New construction remains near a 16-year low as demand surges, driven by a projected 35% growth in the coming decade for the portion of the population age 80 and older.

Chandler said recent growth in large-scale portfolio trades, often exceeding thousands of units across multiple states, signal confidence in long-term fundamentals. Strong industry merger and acquisition activity is likely to continue in the second half as private equity investors re-enter the market after awaiting favorable finance costs and investment yields. 

A growing proportion of U.S. chief human resource officers expect their organizations to decrease hiring over the next six months, among the latest signs of a slowing employment market, the Conference Board reported. The economic research group’s latest mid-year survey found 20% of respondents plan hiring pullbacks, nearly double the share in the year-ago survey.

“Right now, leaders are focused on strengthening their current teams, managing change well, and staying flexible before making big moves to hire again,” Diana Scott, leader of the Conference Board’s U.S. human capital center, said in a statement.

The latest second quarter survey found 50% of more than 100 hiring leaders expect new federal policies to have a negative impact on the workforce, up from 36% in the first quarter. About a third of respondents expect employee retention to improve over the next six months, with 16% expecting it to decline.