Retailers stock up as they brace for trade tariffs, port strike; Meta opens pop-up store; Consumer confidence rises for fourth month

Import cargo volumes at U.S. ports could be higher than previously expected for the rest of 2024, with retailers already looking to get merchandise shipped ahead of potential trade tariffs planned by President-elect Donald Trump, according to researchers at the National Retail Federation and consulting firm Hackett Associates.

Analysts also pointed to the potential of Gulf and East Coast strikes if port operators and dockworkers can’t reach a contract agreement by Jan. 15. A potentially damaging and prolonged strike was averted in early October after talks were extended.

Both factors have implications for the demand of logistics real estate near major ports, as other industries such as hospitality are also now stocking up on supplies to prepare for tariff-fueled price hikes.

Executives of Steve Madden told analysts during a recent earnings call that the shoe retailer plans to cut nearly half of its China production within the next year in anticipation of tariff hikes, aiming to expand in lower-cost regions like Brazil, Mexico and Vietnam. Economists have said other industries may choose to expand U.S. production, similar to shifts that have already boosted domestic factory development for tech components like computer chips.

Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president of supply chain and customs policy, said in a statement that retailers are now “spending extra to bring in cargo early or continue shifting it to the West Coast to avoid any potential disruptions” from a port strike. That occurred earlier this year when a strike loomed at 14 major ports including New York, New Jersey, Philadelphia and Houston.

Gold said the trade group also has fielded reports from some retailers now moving up shipments to avoid planned tariffs on foreign-made goods that the NRF projected could drive up consumer prices by as much as $78 billion annually.

“Neither of these developments is good for retailers, their customers or the economy,” Gold said.

October numbers have not been tallied, but the NRF and Hackett Associates are projecting October’s U.S. port cargo volume will be up 3.7% from a year earlier. Their forecast calls for year-over-year increases of 13.6% in November, 6.1% in December and 2.5% in January. 

Meta has opened a short-term pop-up store in Los Angeles with another planned in Phoenix to showcase its Ray-Ban smart glasses, as the Facebook parent firm joins a wave of companies deploying temporary seasonal retail spaces in recent years.

The Menlo Park, California-based company on Nov. 8 opened what it called Meta Lab at 8600 Melrose Ave. in Los Angeles, slated to operate through Dec. 31, with another debut planned at an undisclosed Phoenix location in January.

A Meta statement described the Los Angeles store as a pop-up experiential retail space, including an “immersion experience room” allowing visitors to view an artificial intelligence-generated Malibu beach. The store is also expected to host a live podcast, stand-up comedy shows and other events.

Retail landlords have increasingly generated income from temporarily vacated spaces used during seasonal periods by companies such as Spirit Halloween. Nobatly, streaming service Netflix has established pop-ups in retail spaces to showcase programs. Technology companies for many years have generally favored trade shows and other types of temporary installations rather than traditional retail spaces to showcase new products.

Apple’s brick-and-mortar stores are among the most highly trafficked and profitable in the retail industry. But analysts that rivals like Amazon and Microsoft have posted middling results and closed numerous stores after trying to sell tech items in permanent shopping center locations.

Consumer confidence increased for the fourth consecutive month in a closely watched national survey by the University of Michigan, with sentiment reflecting prospects for improving household finances and business operating conditions amid slowing inflation.

The university’s overall consumer sentiment index, tracking several economic metrics, posted at 73 for November, based on preliminary results that are subject to revision. That was up from 70.5 in October 2024 and 61.3 in November 2023, on a scale that generally reflects the percentage of respondents with favorable views of their household financial situation and the larger economy.

Joanne Hsu, the university’s director of consumer surveys, said sentiment is now tracking nearly 50% above the June 2022 low point but remains below pre-pandemic readings. Researchers noted the latest survey took place before the Nov. 5 election and that the university’s reporting does not yet reflect voting results.

“Expectations over personal finances climbed 6% in part due to strengthening income prospects, and short-run business conditions soared 9% in November,” Hsu said in a statement. “Long-run business conditions increased to its most favorable reading in nearly four years.”