Jobs seen as harder to get; Auto sales edge higher; Restaurant performance falls

More consumers are facing difficulties in landing new jobs, among the latest indicators of rising pressures on businesses as hiring slows down. Government data showed the U.S. gaining just 22,000 jobs in August after a 79,000 rise in July and a decline of 13,000 for June.

The Conference Board’s latest employment trends survey for August found 20% of respondents reported that “jobs are hard to get,” up from 18.9% in the July survey and the highest level since early 2021. That metric was among others spurring a nearly 1-point drop in the economic research firm’s larger index gauging employment momentum, with six of eight tracked metrics posting negative for July and August.

“Layoffs and unemployment remain low as companies navigate through continued uncertainty,” Conference Board economist Mitchell Barnes said in a report Monday. “But tariff pressures are expected to intensify, raising inflation and reducing consumption, which could restrain activity and dampen future hiring.”

Also Monday, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said its latest August national survey had respondents putting an average probability of 44.9% on finding a new job if the current one was lost. That was down 5.8 percentage points from the prior month and the lowest reading since the regional Fed began tracking the metric in June 2013. 

Nationwide unit sales of new motor vehicles increased 5.3% from the prior month and rose 3% from a year earlier in August, stoked largely by demand from car rental firms, according to the latest figures from data provider Cox Automotive. Unit sales as of August were on pace to reach 16.5 million for the full year, beating the year-earlier figure by 6.2% if current trends hold up.

“Pricing stayed firm, with average transaction prices climbing and incentives edging lower, signaling continued strength in consumer demand despite economic headwinds,” Cox Automotive Chief Economist Jonathan Smoke said in a Monday report.

Smoke noted the average new-vehicle transaction price reached $49,077 in August, based on preliminary estimates — up 0.5% from July and rising 2.6% from a year earlier. The latest Cox surveys have also shown U.S. auto dealer sentiment remaining stable, though profits and customer traffic have dipped so far in the third quarter compared with spring levels.

Much of the August unit sales bump was driven by large auto rental firms, with those sales rising 86.3% from a year earlier. In contrast, sales to government fleets dropped 20.8%, potentially reflecting recent federal employment cuts. 

U.S. restaurant industry performance posted another slight decline as a result of rising costs and consumer pullbacks, according to the latest operator survey by the National Restaurant Association. The industry faces challenges even as other indicators show restaurant spending and hiring holding up relatively well compared with other industries this year.

The restaurant trade group said its monthly performance index, gauging several metrics for current and future business prospects, posted at 99.7 for July, down slightly from the prior month’s 100, with numbers below 100 indicating the industry is in contraction mode. Most operators reported rising same-store sales but declining foot traffic.

Despite lingering uncertainty about the larger economy, the survey found that 55% of operators plan capital spending for equipment, expansion or remodeling in the next six months. That was up slightly from the prior month and the highest reading since February.