Import cargo to post first drop in two years; Apartment developer confidence falls; Fitch lowers restaurant industry outlook

Import volume at the nation’s major container ports is expected starting this month to register its first annual drop since 2023 as a result of trade tariff increases, according to the latest tracking by the National Retail Federation and transportation consulting firm Hackett Associates.

Port officials nationwide have reported containers arriving half-full this month from China and other countries as a result of recent U.S.-imposed tariff hikes. While global trade has not come to a standstill, container volume at U.S. ports is expected to decline nearly 13% for May and drop at least 20% from year-earlier levels starting in June and continuing into fall, according to Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett.

“Container carriers are indeed dropping voyages and consolidating cargo and service to ensure that their vessels are as full as possible and to maintain economies of scale as demand declines,” Hackett said in a statement, noting full-year 2025 import volume could fall more than 10% short of 2024 levels based on current trends.

Port container traffic affects demand for nearby logistics real estate, especially ahead of busy holiday shopping seasons. “In the end, these tariffs will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves,” said Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy.

Multifamily developer confidence declined from a year earlier in the first quarter, as builders cited financing challenges along with flat apartment and condo occupancy growth among factors in the latest survey by the National Association of Home Builders.

Occupancy in existing buildings remains strong, but multifamily developers remain cautious about starting new projects, especially mid- and high-rise condominium projects, trade group analysts said.

“Construction costs, regulatory barriers and financing are the main headwinds right now, with some developers also citing uncertainty about tariffs as a reason to be cautious,” Debra Guerrero, senior vice president of strategic partnerships and government affairs at consulting firm NRP Group and chairman of NAHB’s Multifamily Council, said in a statement.

Based on several metrics and with numbers below 50 indicating contraction in perceived business prospects, the trade group’s latest multifamily production index posted at 44 for the first quarter, down three points from a year earlier. A separate occupancy index posted at 82, down one point from a year earlier.

NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said the latest production gauge is consistent with the group’s forecast of a modest decline in multifamily development for the rest of 2025, followed by modest recovery in 2026. 

Fitch Ratings lowered its 2025 outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry, echoing concerns among industry leaders and other analysts warning of price hikes and reduced consumer spending tied to trade tariffs.

“Higher tariffs on imported ingredients and higher wages threaten U.S. restaurant profitability,” the ratings firm said in a May 9 research note as it lowered its outlook from neutral to deteriorating. “Food and labor each account for about one-third of restaurant costs, so simultaneous inflationary pressures, coupled with weakening economic growth and slowing consumer discretionary spending, pose a significant risk to the sector.”

“This situation could lead to significant distress for some operators, particularly those with small scale or levered balance sheets,” Fitch analysts said. Full-service eateries face particular pressures on food and labor costs tied to tariffs and immigrant worker deportations, though large chains may be better able to absorb those expenses than independent operators, the ratings firm said.

Well before tariff concerns surfaced, several U.S. dining chains and franchisees responded to rising costs and slowing sales during the past year with bankruptcy filings, restaurant closings and job reductions. Still, government data showed overall consumer spending at restaurants holding up relatively well during 2024, though several chains have reported slowing sales during the past two months.

The government is scheduled to release the latest consumer inflation data for April on May 13, and the latest retail sales including April restaurant spending on May 15.