Holiday Spending Expected to Dip Slightly, But Remains Near Record High

Holiday Spending Expected to Dip Slightly, But Remains Near Record High

Consumers are planning to spend slightly less this holiday season compared to last year’s record-setting pace, according to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) latest annual survey.

Shoppers expect to spend an average of $890.49 per person this year — a modest 1.3% decrease from last year’s peak of around $902. Still, this year’s figure marks the second-highest average in the survey’s 23-year history, underscoring continued consumer enthusiasm despite economic headwinds.

The survey, conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics for the NRF, reflects a more measured outlook on holiday spending amid concerns about inflation and tariffs. In fact, 85% of respondents said they anticipate higher prices this year due to ongoing trade tensions and tariffs.

Breaking down the spending, consumers plan to allocate just under $628 on gifts for family and friends. The remaining budget will go toward seasonal extras such as food and candy, holiday decorations, and greeting cards.

The NRF’s findings contrast somewhat with a recent report from brokerage JLL, which predicted a more significant 10% drop in holiday spending compared to last year. Additionally, analysts at Challenger, Gray & Christmas forecast that seasonal retail hiring will fall to its lowest level in 16 years, further signaling cautious sentiment among retailers and consumers alike.

The NRF survey was conducted from October 1 to October 7, and included responses from 8,247 U.S. adults.