CEO confidence slips; UPS predicts more in-store holiday shopping; Construction jobs rise in most states

Business confidence among United States CEOs remained generally positive but retreated for a second straight time in the latest survey by the Conference Board. Corporate leaders expressed jitters about cybersecurity threats, global political uncertainties and regulatory shifts among other factors that could create mounting pressures in coming months.

CEO optimism continued to fade "as leaders of large firms expressed lower confidence in the outlook for their own industries,” Conference Board Chief Economist Dana Peterson said in a statement from the New York-based economic research group.

Gauging several metrics and based on responses gathered nationwide between Sept. 30 and Oct. 14 in collaboration with The Business Council, the group’s latest quarterly index put CEO confidence at 51. Numbers above 50 reflect more positive than negative responses, but the latest reading was down from 52 in the third quarter and numbers have generally been declining since the second quarter, when the index hit a two-year high of 54.

“Most CEOs indicated no revisions to their capital spending plans over the next 12 months, but there was a notable increase in the share of those expecting to roll back investment plans by more than 10%,” Peterson said. Most surveyed CEOs said they plan to hire or retain workers in the year ahead, but the proportion anticipating a net reduction in payrolls edged higher from the prior quarter, to 26%.

On the issue of return-to-office policies, 73% of respondents plan to require in-office work for at least three or four days per week in 2025, up from 71% who already require that minimum in 2024. The survey found 21% plan to require fully in-person work in 2025, up from 14% already doing so in 2024. 

Major package shippers have long benefited from the rise of e-commerce, though UPS is bracing for the possibility of lower shipping demand during this year’s peak holiday season as more customers make in-store purchases.

A key factor is this year’s 17-shipping-day window during which the major carriers can guarantee that items shipped between Thanksgiving and Christmas Eve reach their recipients by Dec. 25 — shorter than windows of past years based on how this year’s business-day calendar plays out.

“What forecasters and some of our customers are saying is, because of the [short] shipping season, many customers will go into a store to complete their holiday purchases,” Carol Tome, CEO of Atlanta-based UPS, told analysts during the company’s latest quarterly earnings call.

“The consumer actually is in pretty good shape,” Tome said as the company reported a 6.5% rise in domestic parcel volume and a 5.6% increase in third quarter revenue from a year earlier, as pre-tax profit rose nearly 47%.

UPS executives emphasized overall consumer concerns about the economy could still play a role in this year’s industry demand during the peak holiday shipping season. “It will still be a good peak, but just not as dynamic as people thought at the beginning of the year,” Tome said.

The National Retail Federation has projected annual U.S. sales growth between 2.5% and 3.5% this holiday season, with spending expected to reach between $979.5 billion and $989 billion for the November-December period. 

Construction employment increased from year-earlier levels in 40 of 50 states, but contractors face continued struggles staffing up for a robust stream of projects in multiple categories, according to the Associated General Contractors of America.

“It is great that four out of five states have added construction jobs over the past year,” Chief Economist Ken Simonson said a statement regarding the trade group’s analysis of September government data. “Even more states would be seeing gains if there were enough qualified workers available to fill job openings.”

Jeffrey Shoaf, CEO of the Arlington, Virginia-based group, reiterated recent calls by industry leaders for Congress to increase funding for construction workforce training and education programs. “Enabling more people to learn about construction as a career opportunity is essential to filling the openings created by the many infrastructure, power and manufacturing projects underway,” Shoaf said.

The contractor group said Texas added the most construction jobs for the 12-month period that ended in September, increasing by 42,300 or 5.1% from a year earlier. It was followed by Florida’s gain of 37,100 or 5.9%, Ohio’s 16,400 or 6.9% and Michigan’s 12,600 or 6.6%.

New York led annual declines in construction jobs, dropping 6,900 or 1.8%, with Oregon down 4,800 or 4.1%, Maryland declining 4,600 or 2.9% and Pennsylvania down 2,900 or 1.1%.